Risk Assessment


- Environmental effects
- Risk assessment model

 

In order to estimate of the adverse effects of different potential leakage situations, as well as the consequences for the entire Baltic Sea ecosystem, it is necessary to study CWA fate and transport and to develop models. For this, different scenarios of possible contaminant release and spread were considered (resuspension, catastrophic events etc).

CHEMSEA developed a high resolution model resolving the dynamics of surface and nearbottom water layers and predicting the concentrations and transport patterns of dissolved and particulate CWA and their degradation products. The model has been calibrated using real data (hydrology, bathymetry, degradation rates) obtained within the CHEMSEA project. Read more CHEMSEA Leakage Model - Summary.

 

Map of locations of potential leakage locations: Bornholm (BM), Gotland (GT), Gdańsk Deep (GD) and Słupsk Furrow (SF):

 

Short time simulations have shown probable pollution of the investigated areas. Below you can view the simulated dispersion for the reference points:

 

Leakage at point BM Day 1 Leakage at point GT Day 1 Leakage at point GD Day 1 Leakage at point SF Day 1 
Leakage at point BM Day 2

Leakage at point GT Day 2

Leakage at point GD Day 2
Leakage at point SF Day 2 
Leakage at point BM Day 3 Leakage at point GT Day 3
Leakage at point GD Day 3
Leakage at point SF Day 3 
Leakage at point BM Day 4  Leakage at point GT Day 4  Leakage at point GD Day 4  Leakage at point SF Day 4 
Leakage at point BM Day 5 Leakage at point GT Day 5  Leakage at point GD Day 5  Leakage at point SF Day 5
Leakage at point BM Day 6  Leakage at point GT Day 6  Leakage at point GD Day 6  Leakage at point SF Day 6 
Leakage at point BM Day 7  Leakage at point GT Day 7  Leakage at point GD Day 7  Leakage at point SF Day 7 
Leakage at point BM Day 8  Leakage at point GT Day 8  Leakage at point GD Day 8  Leakage at point SF Day 8 
Leakage at point BM Day 9  Leakage at point GT Day 9   Leakage at point GD Day 9 Leakage at point SF Day 9 
Leakage at point BM Day 10 Leakage at point GT Day 10 Leakage at point GD Day 10  Leakage at point SF Day 10

 

For more information and guidance for maritime authorities, please contact:

 

Jaromir Jakacki

IO PAN

tel. +48 58 731 19 03 

jjakacki(at)iopan.gda.pl 

 

The obtained data on the biological effects of contaminants plus the hydrodynamic and GIS modeling was used to estimate the potential impact of contamination on the environment. Resulting biological valuation maps that compile and summarise all available biological, ecological and environmental information for a study area, and that allocate an overall biological value to subzones, can be used as baseline maps for most likely scenarios. These results were used as basis for CHEMSEA contingency planning.




Who are we?

Healthprose pharmacy

© CHEMSEA, IOPAN - wszelkie prawa zastrzeżone
Projekt i wykonanie - Virtual Services | Test zgodności W3C: HTML
Powered by: SkyCMS